Photo credit: https://futureoflife.org/2017/09/18/stanislav-petrov-man-saved-world-died/
It is true that split second decisions can alter everything to become so drastic afterwards. The line between history going big and significant is very thin, that decisions so small at one time can have a lasting significant outcome for the millennia to come.
That was the case of the Soviet nuclear false alarm that occurred on September 26, 1983. On that seemingly fateful day, a colonel of the Soviet Air Defense system named Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov was assigned to monitor incoming ICBMs from an enemy country, which is most likely the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and the NATO countries with U.S. nuclear weapons along with the People's Republic of China (then a Soviet enemy after the 1969 Sino-Soviet split). On the night in the Serpukhov bunker, the Soviet nuclear early warning system detected five incoming ICBMs being launched from the midwestern United States. His colleagues then urged him to inform the Soviet military high command in preparation for a counterstrike against the U.S. and its allies. Petrov used his instincts and dismissed the warning as a false alarm, knowing that if the U.S. was to attack the USSR, it would have used all of its nuclear arsenal and not just five.
Cold War situation from 1979-1985.
Legend: U.S. and NATO (Dark Blue), U.S. allies (Light blue), Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact (Red), Soviet allies (light red), People's Republic of China, Yugoslavia, and Albania (Yellow, non-aligned communist states). Anticommunist insurgency (blue cross), communist insurgency (red cross), separatist movement (green cross).
Source: Wikimedia Commons
What he did at that time unknowingly saved the world and the human race as a whole. Petrov meanwhile received disciplinary action for not informing the higher echelons in the military. He left the Soviet Armed Forces in 1984 and the incident would remain obscure until decades later since the Soviets did not want to show weakness in their early warning system.
Now think for a moment, what if he actually took it seriously or what if another hardliner took his place? For sure, World War III would have occurred. The false American decapitation strike of five missiles would then be interpreted as a genuine Soviet first strike against NATO and fellow allies. They would have launched theirs in response and much of the Northern Hemisphere would have been devastated. Though the Southern Hemisphere would probably be untouched, it would still have reeled from its effects from the loss of trade and commerce that would result in riots, famine, disease and civil wars.
At the time in September 1983, the world was in a tensest situation not seen since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Months before, the U.S. held the largest naval exercise with its allies in the North Pacific Ocean while deploying Pershing II missiles to West Germany. On the September 1, 1983, just 25 days before the false alarm, the Soviet Union shot down Korean Airlines Flight 007 (KAL 007) as it strayed towards Soviet air space. Anti-Soviet sentiment skyrocketed around the world, which was further complicated with the USSR initially denying of shooting it down then admitting days later coupled by obstructing the search-and-recovery process of the shoot down. Even after the false alarm, Able Archer 83 military exercises in November genuinely terrified the Soviets of a genuine nuclear attack from NATO but was thankfully averted when cooler heads prevailed. The Cold War eventually reached the phase when both sides agreed to start dismantling nuclear weapons in 1985 with the SALT treaty in addition to Mikhail Gorbachev becoming the President of the Soviet Union in which he created the policies of glasnost and perestroika, giving freedoms not seen by ordinary Soviet citizens for a very long time and opening the country to Western trade. With relations with the United States and the West repaired, this would eventually lead into the Revolutions of 1989 where citizens of the communist regimes in Eastern Europe revolted against their leaders. The communist regimes of Eastern Europe eventually fell and Germany reunified after the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989. The Soviet Union itself would dissolve into 15 independent republics on December 25, 1991. Miraculously, the Cold War never turned hot from its beginning in 1945 to its dramatic end in 1991.
As a person who is a member of the Alternate History Wiki, the Alternate History Forums, and the Alternate History Online group on Facebook, this particular incident hit me hard and made me think very deep how close we came to a nuclear war. This was taken up to eleven when WarGames was released into cinemas in June 1983 and the film called The Day After during the Able Archer exercises which shows what happens should a nuclear war have break out. The scenario entitled 1983: Doomsday on the Alternate History Wiki explores this scenario in great detail.
As of 1983, my parents were both 22 or 23 and were medical students here in Cebu. The Philippines would have been targeted by Soviet nuclear weapons due to being a U.S. treaty ally and the fact the U.S. had major military installations -- Clark Air Base in Pampanga (the largest base of the U.S. Pacific Air Forces in the Western Pacific), Subic Naval Base in Subic (largest base of the 7th Fleet aside from Yokosuka, Japan), and the USAF base of Camp John Hay in Baguio City -- alongside minor air bases, communication outposts, and a firing test range within the country. Whether the Soviets would have targeted major cities in the Philippines is unknown, though via word-of-mouth from a Facebook forum group called "Defense of the Republic of the Philippines" a user mentioned about some declassified 1970s Cold War-era documents detailing the Soviets had missiles targeted at Manila, Baguio, Clark Air Base, Sangley Point, Cebu, and Davao. If you are reading this, they you and I and the rest of us born on or after September 25/26, 1983 owe our very existence to Mr. Petrov. Had history gone a different path, you would not be reading this post today and if you manage to somehow exist in an alternate 2018, there would be no World Wide Web, Internet, and smartphones since technological development would have been severely delayed for 50 or more years. In short, one of the reasons why the world has reached its modern technological state could be attributed to this man.
Mr. Petrov died on May 19, 2017 but his death was not reported until September of that year. May he now rest in peace. He is a definition of a true hero: one that does not wear capes or have superpowers but one who does the right thing at the right place at the right time. He should be remembered by all of us here on this planet and for the next generations to come for his actions saved the human race.
If you were in his place, would you have been willing to dismiss it as a false alarm? Leave your comments below.
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Foreword: This post was inspired from my friend Alexander Wallace of Arlington, Virginia. Alex wrote in his The Odyssey an article as a tribute to Mr. Petrov entitled An Eulogy For The Man Who Saved The World. In fact, it was written in a similar manner if you read his article which I highly recommend you do. Lastly, Alex is one of the moderators of the Alternate History Online group on Facebook.
Map of the Philippines showing the locations of U.S. military bases within the archipelago.
Source: Wikimedia Commons
As of 1983, my parents were both 22 or 23 and were medical students here in Cebu. The Philippines would have been targeted by Soviet nuclear weapons due to being a U.S. treaty ally and the fact the U.S. had major military installations -- Clark Air Base in Pampanga (the largest base of the U.S. Pacific Air Forces in the Western Pacific), Subic Naval Base in Subic (largest base of the 7th Fleet aside from Yokosuka, Japan), and the USAF base of Camp John Hay in Baguio City -- alongside minor air bases, communication outposts, and a firing test range within the country. Whether the Soviets would have targeted major cities in the Philippines is unknown, though via word-of-mouth from a Facebook forum group called "Defense of the Republic of the Philippines" a user mentioned about some declassified 1970s Cold War-era documents detailing the Soviets had missiles targeted at Manila, Baguio, Clark Air Base, Sangley Point, Cebu, and Davao. If you are reading this, they you and I and the rest of us born on or after September 25/26, 1983 owe our very existence to Mr. Petrov. Had history gone a different path, you would not be reading this post today and if you manage to somehow exist in an alternate 2018, there would be no World Wide Web, Internet, and smartphones since technological development would have been severely delayed for 50 or more years. In short, one of the reasons why the world has reached its modern technological state could be attributed to this man.
Mr. Petrov died on May 19, 2017 but his death was not reported until September of that year. May he now rest in peace. He is a definition of a true hero: one that does not wear capes or have superpowers but one who does the right thing at the right place at the right time. He should be remembered by all of us here on this planet and for the next generations to come for his actions saved the human race.
If you were in his place, would you have been willing to dismiss it as a false alarm? Leave your comments below.
*********************************************************************************
Foreword: This post was inspired from my friend Alexander Wallace of Arlington, Virginia. Alex wrote in his The Odyssey an article as a tribute to Mr. Petrov entitled An Eulogy For The Man Who Saved The World. In fact, it was written in a similar manner if you read his article which I highly recommend you do. Lastly, Alex is one of the moderators of the Alternate History Online group on Facebook.
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